Analysis of Saturation Degree and Capacity Exceedance Projection on the Margoyoso-Jepara City Boundary Road Segment Using the Traffic Growth Rate Method
Keywords:
saturation degree, road capacity, traffic growth rate, collector road, traffic managementAbstract
Rapid traffic growth on strategic collector roads can reduce road performance when capacity and traffic management do not develop proportionally. The Margoyoso Jepara City boundary road segment plays an important role in regional mobility in Jepara Regency, yet segment-specific evidence on its capacity pressure and future performance remains limited. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the saturation degree and projecting traffic conditions to support evidence-based traffic management. A quantitative traffic engineering approach was applied using the Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual (MKJI 1997) and traffic growth projection analysis. The 2022 annual daily traffic volume of 86,261 vehicles/day was projected to 95,258 vehicles/day in 2025 using a 3.5% annual growth rate. Road capacity was calculated at 2,842 pcu/hour, while the projected 2025 traffic flow reached 4,673 pcu/hour, resulting in a saturation degree of 1.64. This indicates oversaturated operating conditions. The 2028 projection shows further performance deterioration without intervention. A motorcycle segregation scenario, defined as separating motorcycle movements from mixed traffic through dedicated control or lane management, reduced the saturation degree below 1.00. The findings highlight the urgency of demand management, motorcycle flow control, and capacity improvement on this strategic road segment.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Annastassya Nur Cahyani, Fatchur Roehman, Dwi Agus Rudyanto (Author)
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